And when we win, it will be a magic fairyland!

I am writing in reaction to Andrew Coulson’s latest Cato-at-Liberty post.  He seems to be saying that in spite of the NIE report saying that the risk of terrorist is getting worse that is to be expected because we haven’t won the war in Iraq.  His comparison is to WWII by saying that we were no safer from 1942-1945 than we were in 1941 because, d’uh, the war was going on and you can’t expect to be safer ’till it’s over!  Don’t get me started on what I think about WWII analogies to fighting terrorism . . .

What Coulson seems to be misunderstanding in his own mind is that the War in Iraq is different from the War on Terror.  We are generating a new generation of Islamic radicals, not just in Iraq but in other countries in response to our foreign policy ineptitude in the Middle East.  This new generation will be led in some instances by veterans of the Iraqi insurgency and civil war.  Regardless whether we win or lose in Iraq, we have sowed the seeds of Islamic extremism for our children.

In other words, even assuming you believe we are winning in Iraq, our actions are setting us further back in the War on Terror.  So even when we “win” in Iraq, it will be phyrric, because it will have failed to address the real issues that will inevitable bear fruit in the future in the form on new Islamic extremism.  Let the Post not accuse me of hindsight bias (do not get me started on their ridiculous article), for I am putting my flag in the sand and declaring right here and now that unless and until the United States gets a grip on its neo-colonial/imperial foreign policy we will always be at a greater risk of terrorist attack, for now and evermore, no matter what the result in Iraq.

To close the loop, that seems to leave the question of Iraq hanging in the balance.  Do we leave?  Do we stay?  Does it matter?  I say whether you set a firm deadline or not, you damn well better set some reasonable, achievable victory conditions and stick to them.  From a practical perspective that likely means you commit to training X number of troops and police, then you’re done.  You get out.  Most of them want us out.  Most of them believe they will be safer when we’re gone.

The further upside to that is that it shows we respect their sovereignty and democracy.  If a majority of Iraqis want us out, then the government should be asking us to leave, and we must respect that, or else it means they’re little more than a 21st century colony.